Eight Months from Last Fed Hike to First Fed Cut

The last Federal Reserve (Fed) hike was in July.

If this was the last Fed hike during this cycle, and assuming it takes on average eight months from the last Fed hike to the first Fed cut, then the Fed will start cutting rates in March 2024, see chart below.

The big difference today is that inflation remains significantly above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2% target. This may lead the Fed to keep rates high, even if the economic data starts to slow down more meaningfully.

_{Source: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Discount rate used before 1988.} 

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.