SFS Insights: Forecasting the Fed Funds Rate
In March 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thought that the Federal Reserve (Fed) funds rate by the end of 2023 would be zero, and today they think it will be 5.6%, see chart below. With this in mind, markets should be flexible when they think about where the Fed funds rate will be by the end of 2024.
Source: FRB, Apollo Chief Economist